Retail Sentiment Falls At The Sharpest Rate In Five Years

Sentiment amongst retailers fell at the sharpest rate in five years in May, with the net balance of firms expecting their business situation to deteriorate over the coming quarter, according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.

Year-on-year retail sales volumes fell in May, a decline expected to accelerate next month. However, online sales fared better, with volumes rising in the year to May, following six consecutive months of falling or flat sales.

Against a backdrop of subdued demand, retailers plan to reduce investment and headcount. Retailers are expecting to significantly scale back capital expenditure in the next 12 months compared to the last 12. This cautious outlook shows only modest improvement on February's reading, which marked its weakest point since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020. Total employment fell in May compared to a year ago, with the pace of decline expected to accelerate in June.

Key findings included:

• Year-on-year retail sales fell in May (weighted balance of -27% from -8% in April). Sales are expected to decline at a faster rate next month (-37%).

• Retail sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in May, but to a lesser extent than in April (19% from -31% in April). June sales are set to remain below seasonal norms (-21%).

• Sentiment amongst retailers plummeted in May at the sharpest rate in five years, with a net balance of firms expecting their business situation to worsen over the coming quarter (-29% from -19% in February).

• Retailers expect to scale back investment plans in the next 12 months (compared to the previous 12) to a significant extent (-47% from -56% in February).

• Employment in retail declined at a broadly steady rate in the year to May, compared to the previous quarter (-15% from -13% in February). Headcount is expected to fall at a quicker pace next month (-20%).

• Retail selling price inflation picked up in the year to May but remained below the long-run average for the fifth consecutive quarterly survey (+35% from +25% in February; long-run average +41%). Retailers anticipate selling prices to increase at an accelerated rate next month (+57%).

• Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) declined in the year to May at the joint-fastest rate since January 2021 (-43% from -26% in April). Businesses anticipate another strong decline in sales for June, albeit at a slower pace (-38%).

Ben Jones, Lead Economist, CBI, said:

“This was a fairly downbeat survey and highlights some of the challenges facing the retail and wider distribution sector. In contrast to other recent retail data, this survey suggests parts of the sector are still struggling with fragile consumer demand, though online sales seem to be holding up better."

“Firms are also feeling the impact of higher NICs and the National Living Wage increase. Our quarterly survey suggests that retailers are cutting back on hiring, scaling back investment and expect to increase selling prices at the fastest pace for over a year."

“With the Spending Review on the horizon, the government has an opportunity to kickstart growth and incentivise investment, whether by reforming business rates, simplifying skills investment through the Apprenticeship Levy reform or expanding the Made Smarter Programme, further enabling digital adoption.”

In addition, data from the survey showed:

Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined at an accelerated rate in the year to May (-41% from -24% in April). Retailers expect to cut back on orders at a steady pace in June (-42%).

Retailers reported that stock volumes in relation to expected demand dipped below the long-run average in May (+12% from +21% in April; long-run average +17%). Stock positions are expected to ease further next month (+9%).

Online retail sales volumes grew at a strong rate in the year to May, following six consecutive months of falling or flat sales (+37% from -1% in April). Retailers expect online sales to grow again next month, but at a moderate rate (+17%).

Wholesale annual sales volumes fell in May at the fastest rate since June 2020 (-48% from -33% in April). Wholesalers expect the sales decline to slow next month (-30%).

Motor trades annual sales volumes contracted in May at the joint-quickest rate since October 2022 (-65% from -50% in April). Motor traders expect sales to decline at the same pace in June (-65%).